A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
