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Voting has commenced for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant division ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks may require months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.