Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after President Trump said he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, too.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I will observe what transpires."
  • Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The frequently changing meeting is another development in the president's efforts to broker an conclusion to war in Ukraine – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

While making remarks in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.

Reduced Influence

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but provided the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump benefited from a long record of supporting Israel since his initial presidency, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him special sway over the nation's head.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could harm the global economy and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to back off in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the entire region.

Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the war any closer to a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in the summer yielded no concrete results.

Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of influencing him.

During the summer, Putin consented to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the Russian leader called the US president who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.

The next day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.

So, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede the entire Donbas region – including land Russia has been failed to capture.

He has finally decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Alexander Montes
Alexander Montes

A passionate gamer and tech writer with over a decade of experience in the esports industry, sharing insights and strategies.